EFFECTS OF INSTITUTIONS AND POLICIES ON RURAL-POPULATION GROWTH WITH APPLICATION TO CHINA

Given the tensions between farm families and the government created by China's strict birth planning policy, consideration should be given to the combination of policies and institutions that will harmonize the interests of farmers with the stated goal of reducing the rate of population growth. The article presents evidence that, within relatively wide limits, the size of China's population will have little effect on per capita food supplies or real per capita income. Two policy changes-lowering the barriers to rural-urban migration and introducing long-term land use rights-if implemented would improve the circumstances of rural life and reduce desired fertility. Nevertheless, an additional substantial voluntary reduction in family size requires improving educational opportunities for rural youth and providing alternatives to sons in achieving old-age security. A further reform of the land system that would permit the ownership, sale, and renting of farm land would go a long way toward providing such security.