We have studied the cement industry in China to determine the prospects for renovation and for building new facilities during the 1990s, and, in particular, the prospects for improved energy efficiency. The potential is good for renovating most vertical-kiln plants to improve their energy intensity 10-30% while substantially increasing their capacity and reducing pollution, all at low cost. State-of-the-art precalciner kilns offer small energy-efficiency advantages, but important environmental and product-quality advantages over improved vertical kilns. We present three scenarios that differ as to the technology of new plants, emphasizing: (i) high-cost, state-of-the-art precalciner kilns, (ii) moderate-cost advanced vertical kilns, and (iii) low-cost vertical kilns without advanced technology. We discuss the costs, energy intensities, and environmental implications of these three scenarios.
