RECENT TRENDS IN STRATOSPHERIC TOTAL OZONE - IMPLICATIONS OF DYNAMIC AND EL-CHICHON PERTURBATIONS

The recently reprocessed Nimbus-7 TOMS total ozone data from 1979 to 1989 are analyzed to assess the global impact of the El Chichon volcanic eruption on stratospheric total ozone. An apparent decrease in total ozone of 5 to 6% is present during the winter of 1982-83 following the eruption of El Chichon. A regression analysis of total ozone with the equatorial zonal wind at 30 mb indicates that response to the quasi-biennial oscillation can explain much of the observed ozone anomaly, and that the total ozone decrease which can be attributed to El Chichon is at most 2 to 4 percent. This study also suggests that the interannual variability caused by the quasi-biennial oscillation and planetary wave activity may introduce apparent seasonal trends in total ozone and temperature in the lower stratosphere, particularly if the length of the data record is not very long. Such trends may affect the assessment of total ozone changes caused by chemical perturbations.