ECOLOGICAL MODELS AND THE PITFALLS OF CAUSALITY

After the disappointing experiences with complex ecological models in the days of the International Biological Program, dynamic modelling has never really recovered a convincing niche in applied ecology. Simple generic models have become the tool par excellence for the development of theory. However, the popularity of these abstract theoretical models among practical ecologists is marginal. It is argued that the antagonism against such models is largely due to a misconception about their possible role in the process of unravelling the functioning of ecological communities. We discuss the pitfalls of analyzing the driving causal relationships in real world ecosystems, and evaluate role for minimal models in this context.