INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY IN REAL-TIME FOR MONITORING AND MANAGING NATURAL DISASTERS

This paper considers the role of information technology in forecasting, monitoring and managing disasters in real-time (i.e., by analysis of data as soon as they are collected). First, the advantages and pitfalls of a technological approach to natural hazards are discussed, then the general nature of real-time technology is described. There follows a review of the appropriate techniques of monitoring the physical impacts of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, tsunamis, floods and landslides. Next the role of information technology in disaster management is assessed, with emphasis on telecommunications and simulation modelling. As a cautionary note, two notorious failures of prediction and warning are discussed (the strom of October 1987 in England and the volcanic eruption diaster of November 1985 in Colombia), both of which would have benefited from more careful use of real-time monitoring. It is concluded that microcomputers, earth resources satellites, communications satellites and Geographical Information Systems offer considerable potential for natural disaster management, especially if real-time uses are developed by integrating these technologies.