MODELS FOR PLANNING CAPACITY EXPANSION OF CONVENIENCE STORES UNDER UNCERTAIN DEMAND AND THE VALUE OF INFORMATION

Several stochastic optimization models for planning capacity expansion for convenience store chains (or other similar businesses) are developed that incorporate uncertainty in future demand. All of these models generate schedules for capacity expansion, specifying the size, location, and timing of these expansions in order to maximize the expected profit to the company and to remain within a budget constraint on available resources. The models differ in how uncertainty is incorporated, specifically they differ in the point in the decision-making process that the uncertainty in the demand is resolved. Several measures of the value of information are defined by comparing the results from the different models. Two sample problems are given and their solutions for the various approaches compared.