THEORETICAL CONTROL OF SEASONAL PESTS - SINGLE SPECIES MODEL

Pest control problems can be grouped into categories, or paradigms, according to the nature of the relationship between pest population development, crop revenue and control cost. A simple case is considered of a univoltine pest with a single damaging stage which can be controlled by pesticide application. The timing of pesticide application is determined in relation to stage recruitment and age-specific survival. There are two control strategies. The threshold control strategy is based on monitoring pest recruitment. The optimal control strategy is based on predicting pest recruitment. A modified form of dynamic programming is developed in order to determine the optimal strategy. The results of using each strategy are compared in a worked example. It is concluded that the optimal strategy is not significantly cheaper than the threshold strategy over the range of possible control costs, but does reduce the amount of pesticide which must be applied. © 1979.