PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY AND INTERACTION IN COMPLEX ENVIRONMENTAL-MODELS

Recently developed models for the estimation of risks arising from the release of toxic chemicals from hazardous waste sites are inherently complex both structurally and parametrically. To better understand the impact of uncertainty and interaction in the high-dimensional parameter spaces of these models, the set of procedures termed regional sensitivity analysis has been extended and applied to the groundwater pathway of the MMSOILS model. The extension consists of a tree-structured density estimation technique which allows the characterization of complex interaction in that portion of the parameter space which gives rise to successful simulation. Results show that the parameter space can be partitioned into small, densely populated regions and relatively large, sparsely populated regions. From the high-density regions one can identify the important or controlling parameters as well as the interaction between parameters in different local areas of the space. This new tool can provide guidance in the analysis and interpretation of site-specific application of these complex models.