AN EXPERT-SYSTEM FOR SCREENING POTENTIALLY INVASIVE ALIEN PLANTS IN SOUTH-AFRICAN FYNBOS

The development and application of an expert system is described for screening alien woody plants for their invasive potential in South African fynbos. The system is proposed for use by potential introducers to demonstrate low invasive risk before importing woody alien species for cultivation. Rules for the system were derived from empirical evidence by quantifying invasion windows and barriers that have limited the set of widespread woody invaders (trees and shrubs) in fynbos to fewer than 20, out of several hundred introduced species. The system first compares broad-scale environmental conditions (climate and soil) between the home environment of a species and fynbos. Features of the plant in its home environment (basic life history traits, population characteristics, regeneration biology, habitat preferences) are then assessed. Finally, an assessment is made of life history adaptations to the prevailing fire regime in fynbos (juvenile period, fire-survival capacity of adult plants, seed bank longevity). The reasoning is explicit and the steps leading to a conclusion (high risk/low risk) can be retraced. Besides the obvious application in identifying species with a high risk of invading, the system has considerable potential for modelling, and for teaching the concepts of biological invasions. The rules provide an explicit conceptualization of invasion processes in fynbos and identify multiple paths to invasive success (not all of which have been realized yet). The system can therefore be used in planning control operations (for optimal allocation of control effort to critical stages in invasion), and for predicting the outcome of changes (e.g. in fire frequency) on the dimensions of invasion windows, and for assessing what changes are needed to prevent or reduce the extent of invasion by a given taxon. Application of the system is demonstrated on Pinus and Banksia taxa and a selection of species from Californian chaparral. (C) 1995 Academic Press Limited