INFLUENCE OF THE STARTING DATE OF MODEL INTEGRATION ON PROJECTIONS OF GREENHOUSE-GAS-INDUCED CLIMATIC-CHANGE

The influence of the starting date of model integration on time-dependent projections of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change is assessed with a coupled atmosphere-ocean energy-balance model. It is shown that the starting date effect depends on the rate of forcing change and on the oceanic thermal inertia. On the other hand, the model results indicate that, for the various cases considered here, reliable projections of greenhouse-gas-induced climatic change over the next century can be obtained by starting the model integration as late as the year 1960.