CONSUMPTION AND POVERTY IN TANZANIA IN 1976 AND 1991 - A COMPARISON USING SURVEY DATA

The paper tests the hypothesis that given the significant decline of the Tanzanian economy in the early 1980s and the mediocre performance in the post-1986 adjustment period, household real incomes should be lower and the level of poverty should be higher in the early 1990s compared to the precrisis boom period of the mid-1970s. The analysis is done by comparing real household expenditures from two national surveys, in 1976 and 1991. The results suggest that real per capita expenditures in both rural and urban areas are higher in 1991 compared to 1976. Furthermore, the level of poverty in both rural and urban areas is lower in 1991. The results, which refute the stated hypothesis, are tested under alternative assumptions and are found robust.