ECOLOGICAL ECONOMIC MODELING AND VALUATION OF ECOSYSTEMS

We are attempting to integrate ecological and economic modeling and analysis in order to improve our understanding of regional systems, assess potential future impacts of various land-use, development, and agricultural policy options, and to better assess the value of ecological systems. Starting with an existing spatially articulated ecosystem model of the Patuxent River drainage basin in Maryland, we are adding modules to endogenize the agricultural components of the system (especially the impacts of agricultural practices and crop choice) and the process of land-use decision making. The integrated model will allow us to evaluate the indirect effects over long time horizons of current policy options. These effects are almost always ignored in partial analyses, although they may be very significant and may reverse many long-held assumptions and policy predictions. This paper is a progress report on this modeling effort, indicating our motivations, ideas, and plans for completion.