Little direct evidence exists in the epidemiologic literature to support the widely held belief that an individual's physical activity behavior varies over the years. To provide data, the authors prospectively studied patterns of physical activity among 6,092 Harvard College alumni (average age at the start of follow-up, 43 years) who responded to questionnaires in 1962 or 1966, 1977, and 1988, and who declared themselves free of cardiovascular disease and cancer throughout that period. The median energy expenditure increased between 1962 or 1966 and 1977, but stabilized between 1977 and 1988. However, rank correlation coefficients between estimates of energy expenditure in 1977 and 1988 ranged from 0.36 to 0.41 for the various age groups (compared with 0.81-0.84 for the Quetelet index, and 0.60-0.65 for the current number of cigarettes smoked per day), implying that physical activity at the individual level was not constant. For 4,238 alumni for whom data on collegiate sports participation were available, the rank correlation coefficients between collegiate activity and alumni activity 1-7 decades later were even lower, ranging from 0.05 to 0.17 (compared with 0.31-0.58 for the Quetelet index). Thus, physical activity assessed over a short time period in an individual may not be a valid proxy for activity over the long term. The characteristics that distinguished alumni who consistently expended <1,000 kcal/week (in climbing stairs, walking, and playing sports) in 1962 or 1966, 1977, and 1988 from those who consistently expended >2,500 kcal/week were as follows: at baseline, older age, overweight, and cigarette smoking; and during college, not having been a varsity athlete and fewer hours playing sports.
