AUTOCATALYTIC MODEL FOR THE DIFFUSION OF EDUCATIONAL INNOVATIONS

The spread of educational innovations is a topic that has been investigated from a multitude of viewpoints. Some individuals have been interested in dissemination of particular practices or products; others have studied the diffusion process itself; and still others have focused on the adopters, their characteristics and motivations. This paper is in the tradition of diffusion research, but it is an outgrowth of recent developments in a quantitative approach that has emerged in the field of marketing that, in turn, has its roots in the mathematical models of epidemiologists studying the spread of diseases and chemists investigating the nature of chemical reactions. The chemical model for autocatalytic reactions is adapted to the process of adopting educational innovations, and the model is applied to six sets of historical data. The model fits very well in five cases. It is also used to project the future adoption “life cycle” of the semester system in Ontario. The initial fit is very good; a peak year was projected for 1975, and an end to the cycle of adoptions is predicted for 1979. © 1979, Sage Publications. All rights reserved.