RAINFALL-BASED REAL-TIME FLOOD FORECASTING

The use of conceptual rainfall-runoff models in real-time flood forecasting still presents problems, some of which relate to the updating of the mathematical model and to uncertainties associated with future rainfall. Both topics are approached in this study, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (IPH-II) for real-time flood forecasting and a simplified stochastic model to determine the value of including quantitative rainfall forecasts were used. The methods were tested using data from a small watershed (the River Ray at Grendon Underwood, UK), for which 17 years of records were available. The results show that a simple method used to forecast rain falling during the next few hours, may help to improve real-time discharge estimates.