IDENTIFYING AND ASSESSING TARGETS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PLASTICS RECYCLING

This paper identifies and assesses "targets of opportunity" for additional recycling of plastic wastes. Targets are discussed in terms of the quantities of plastics wastes that might be affected, the relevant supply-side and demand-side constraints that must be overcome before these targets can be met, and the degree to which meeting these targets might be facilitated by government sponsored incentive programs or other regulatory measures. Five hypothetical scenarios are developed that depict various supply-side and demand-side conditions. In some cases, the supply-side and demand-side assumptions are consistent with current technical, economic, institutional, and regulatory conditions. In other cases, particularly with respect to supply-side constraints, the assumptions represent significant shifts in the ways plastics are collected and processed in the United States. The quantities and types of plastics that could be recycled, given the hypothetical conditions, are estimated. The viability of the assumptions in the various scenarios is also assessed. Given current conditions and expected future trends, three broad options exist to increase the percentage of plastics recycled. First, actions can be taken to promote the collection and recycling of relatively clean plastic waste. Technical constraints and the relative sizes of markets for different resins suggest that a focus on polyethylene terephthalate (PET) and high-density polyethylene (HDPE) packaging is most appropriate. Second, actions can be taken to promote the collection and recycling of commingled plastics. Third, plastics can be collected with other combustible wastes and incinerated to recover heat value. The recycling of PET and HDPE faces fewer technical, economic, and institutional constraints than does the recycling of commingled plastics. Although more risky, recycling of commingled plastics offers the opportunity to recycle a much larger percentage of the total plastics waste stream. Incineration with heat recovery could utilize all plastic wastes. The potential for incineration may, however, be limited by environmental concerns. Given the uncertainties that currently exist about these recycling approaches, a flexible public policy with respect to plastics recycling is suggested at this time.