PROBABILISTIC SLOPE ANALYSIS FOR STRUCTURAL FAILURE

A method to estimate the localized probability of slope failure was developed for open pit slopes in fractured rock masses by combining geostatistical modeling techniques with key block analysis. Indicator kriging was employed to create a localized probabilistic cell-block model of joint systems observed in the pit. Key block kinematic analysis of wedge failure was applied to the joint system model and a full probability of slope failure in each cell-block or local area was obtained. Compared to the stochastic simulation of slope failure based on the global sample statistics and the deterministic failure analysis by its mean data, the localized stochastic approach provided much greater resolution in slope stability analysis.