SHORTAGE INDEXES FOR WATER-RESOURCES PLANNING IN TAIWAN

Water shortage is a major socioeconomic problem facing society today. From the viewpoint of water-resources planning, an effective water-shortage index should capture such basic characteristics as its frequency, intensity, and duration. Moreover, a shortage index should serve as an indicator of the social tolerance limits to water shortage. A well-designed water-shortage index plays an important role in water-resources planning and management, particularly in conducting feasibility studies associated with system-capacity expansion. The main purpose of this study is to develop a generalized shortage index (GSI) by modifying other water-shortage indices that are currently utilized in Japan and the United States. The proposed GSI not only incorporates the basic shortage characteristics, but also emphasizes the consequential socioeconomic impacts of water shortage. By using historical streamflow records, projected future water demands, and a river-basin simulation model, a methodology is developed to analyze the various capacity-expansion alternatives in connection with water-resources planning for the Kaoping river basin in Taiwan. The simulation results indicate that the proposed GSI is more precise and effective than other indices for resources-planning purposes.