BIRTH CONTROL FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Most less-developed countries have population increases approaching 3 percent a year. Death rates have fallen dramatically in the past several decades, but annual birthrates remain at around 4 percent of population. Income per head is rising slowly. Enough is known about the main parameters that a demographic-economic computer model can be used to assess the effects of declining fertility rates on various indices of economic welfare in a typical less-developed country. Thus halving in 30 years a 3.025 gross rate of reproduction results in income per head increasing 3.0 percent a year instead of 1.7 percent a year with no fertility change. Halving fertility also results in a third more capital per worker after 30 years. A large birth-control program might directly cost about $5 a year per acceptor." About 25 percent of the population aged 15 through 49 would have to practice contraception on an average to halve the gross reproduction rate in 30 years. During this period the total cost might be roughly $200 million for a less-developed country that started with a population of 10 million. Accumulated benefits could be $16 billion. The benefit to cost ratio is roughly 80 to 1."