INTERANNUAL ATMOSPHERIC VARIABILITY AND ASSOCIATED FLUCTUATIONS IN ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT

Observational data are used to evaluate quantitatively the relationships on the seasonal time scale. The sea ice data set contains 300 monthly grids of observed sea ice concentrations. Statistically significant correlations between the dominant modes of atmospheric and sea ice variability are found at atmospheric lags of up to 2 months and ice lags of up to 4 months. The surface temperature field generally shows the strongest relationship to the sea ice fluctuations. The strongest correlations between ice anomalies and subsequent atmospheric fluctuations are found in the autumn months of increasing ice extent. The meteorological difference fields derived from years of extreme ice extent contain statistically significant differences. The anomaly centers tend to migrate seasonally with the ice edge. The statistical predicability of large-scale sea ice fluctuations decays to the level of no skill at a forecast interval of 5-6 months. -Authors