THE INTRINSIC TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS OF TUBERCULOSIS EPIDEMICS

被引：352

作者：

BLOWER, SM

MCLEAN, AR

PORCO, TC

SMALL, PM

HOPEWELL, PC

SANCHEZ, MA

MOSS, AR

机构：

[1] UNIV OXFORD, DEPT ZOOL, OXFORD OX1 3PS, ENGLAND

[2] STANFORD UNIV, SCH MED,DIV INFECT DIS & GEOG MED, STANFORD, CA 94305 USA

[3] UNIV CALIF SAN FRANCISCO, SAN FRANCISCO GEN HOSP,MED SERV, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94143 USA

[4] UNIV CALIF SAN FRANCISCO, SAN FRANCISCO GEN HOSP,DEPT MED, SAN FRANCISCO, CA 94143 USA

[5] UNIV CALIF BERKELEY, SCH PUBL HLTH, BERKELEY, CA 94720 USA

来源：

NATURE MEDICINE | 1995年 / 1卷 / 08期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1038/nm0895-815

中图分类号：

Q5 [生物化学]; Q7 [分子生物学];

学科分类号：

071010 ; 081704 ;

摘要：

In developed countries the major tuberculosis epidemics declined long before the disease became curable in the 1940s. We present a theoretical framework for assessing the intrinsic transmission dynamics of tuberculosis. We demonstrate that it takes one to several hundred years for a tuberculosis epidemic to rise, fall and reach a stable endemic level. Our results suggest that some of the decline of tuberculosis is simply due to the natural behaviour of an epidemic. Although other factors must also have contributed to the decline, these causal factors were constrained to operate within the slow response time dictated by the intrinsic dynamics.

引用

页码：815 / 821

页数：7

共 31 条

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