IN DEFENSE OF A FOLK MODEL - THE SKIPPER EFFECT IN THE ICELANDIC COD FISHERY

The Icelandic folk model of fishing success emphasizes the importance of the skipper. The validity of this folk model has recently been hotly debated in the social science literature. In this study an attempt is made to estimate the role of the skipper in fishing success. First, we document by a national survey the composition of the folk model of fishing success held by the Icelandic public. Second, drawing on extensive interview data we outline the model of fishing success proposed by skippers themselves. Third, we test this folk science of the skipper by means of visual and statistical analysis against a social science model that emphasizes the role of material factors. The results show that fishing success is not determined by technological and material factors, leaving plenty of room for human factors, such as the skills and knowledge of the skipper. These results are consistent with folk notions of the skipper effect, but contradictory to earlier results of social science. Finally, the results are discussed in a theoretical context with reference to resource management and the nature of folk models.