A METHOD FOR TESTING WHETHER MODEL PREDICTIONS FALL WITHIN A PRESCRIBED FACTOR OF TRUE VALUES, WITH AN APPLICATION TO PESTICIDE LEACHING

被引：34

作者：

PARRISH, RS ^{[1
]}

SMITH, CN ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] US EPA,ENVIRONM RES LAB,ATHENS,GA 30613

来源：

ECOLOGICAL MODELLING | 1990年 / 51卷 / 1-2期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0304-3800(90)90058-O

中图分类号：

Q14 [生态学（生物生态学）];

学科分类号：

071012 ; 0713 ;

摘要：

A quantitative method is described for testing whether model predictions fall within a specified factor of true values. The technique is based on classical theory for confidence regions on unknown population parameters and can be related to hypothesis testing in both univariate and multivariate situations. A capability index is defined that can be used as a measure of predictive capability of a model, and its properties are discussed. The testing approach and the capability index should facilitate model validation efforts and permit comparisons among competing models. An example is given for a pesticide leaching model that predicts chemical concentrations in the soil profile. © 1990.

引用

页码：59 / 72

页数：14

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