COUNTERBALANCING USING UNEQUAL WEIGHTS

Counterbalancing is a new method of forecasting that reduces the systematic component of forecasting error. A graphical interpretation of the method is presented. This intuitive approach reveals the need for variable as opposed to fixed equal weights. The method is expanded to counterbalancing with variable weights, resulting in further reductions in forecasting error. Important applications include (1) power system hourly load forecasting for economic dispatch, (2) information feed forward in continuous process control, and (3) forecasting for scheduling, just in time manufacturing, sales, and distribution requirements planning in global logistics.