PARAMETER SENSITIVITY OF A MODEL OF VIRAL EPIDEMICS SIMULATED WITH MONTE-CARLO TECHNIQUES .1. ILLNESS ATTACK RATES

This is the first of a series of papers concerning sensitivity analyses of stochastic micropopulation models. A model of epidemic spread of viral infection is used in this series to illustrate the principles and performance of the sensitivity analysis system. For these studies the analysis system now known as SENSEN was redesigned and extended to use the principles and modules of the SUMMERS simulation shell. The latter was used in the implementation of the epidemic model as well as a number of others. The SENSEN system can be used with any of these. The advantages of sensitivity analysis for stochastic micropopulation models are discussed. Its general form and operation are illustrated by a comparison of illness attack rates with infection attack rates.