LAND-USE DYNAMICS WITHIN AN URBANIZING NONMETROPOLITAN COUNTY IN NEW-YORK-STATE (USA)

Land use/land cover data for fifteen minor civil divisions (MCDs) in Ulster County, New York (USA) were interpreted from 1968 and 1985 aerial photographs. These data were combined with ancillary physiographic and demographic data as raster layers within a computerized geographic information system (GIS). Class to class changes in land use/land cover were quantified for a study area approximately 30 kilometers by 50 kilometers. The relationships between the land use/land cover variables and the ancillary variables were modeled in a series of weighted least squares regressions employing data spatially aggregated by general soil map unit (N = 44). Between 1968 and 1985, nearly one-third of the study area changed to another land use/land cover class. Land in the urban class increased from 6.7% to 17.8% of the study area, while the forest class declined from 65.0% to 55.2%, and the agriculture class declined from 12.7% to 8.9%. Gains and losses in the remaining five major (Level 1) land use/land cover classes were relatively small. Land use changes primarily involved the conversion of land from the forest, agriculture, and vacant classes to the urban class, and from the agriculture class to the forest and vacant classes. Variables accounting for the variance in the land use/land cover class proportions of the soil units were population density, highway proximity, distance to urban centers, mean elevation, mean slope gradient, and soil suitability for farming and for urban development.