ESTIMATING THE IMPACT OF PAST PERSECUTION AND HABITAT CHANGES ON THE NUMBERS OF BADGERS MELES-MELES IN BRITAIN

Data from a Badger sett survey undertaken in the mid-1980s were used to calculate the effects of past persecution and land-use changes on Badger numbers. The current British Badger population was estimated to be 41,894 +/- 4404 social groups; if the effects of past persecution were eliminated, the population could be 43,437 +/- 4731 social groups, an increase of 3.7%. Most of this increase relates to persecution in Norfolk and Suffolk last century. In Britain the Badger population is largely confined to those areas which are intensively managed, and the numbers and distribution of Badgers reflect patterns of agricultural activity. However, over-intensive use of the landscape is detrimental to Badger numbers. To quantify the impact of land-use changes on the British Badger population, a number of habitat features favourable to Badgers were identified; 1-km squares that contained five or more such features had significantly higher mean Badger densities. If all the 1-km squares were managed to include five or more of the habitat features favoured by Badgers, and the effects of persecution were eliminated, the Badger population could be 58,284 +/- 5640 social groups, an increase of 39%. The absence of semi-natural broadleaved woodlands in a 1-km square had the greatest effect in reducing Badger numbers, and tree-planting schemes may be beneficial in providing potential new sett sites. However, Badgers are poor colonists, and the construction of artificial setts and the translocation of displaced social groups of Badgers will greatly facilitate the colonization process. The value of such an approach for predicting the effects of future land-use policy on Badgers and other species, and for managing the British wildlife resources, is discussed.