DECISION-MAKING OVER TIME AND UNDER UNCERTAINTY - A COMMON APPROACH

被引:358
作者
PRELEC, D [1 ]
LOEWENSTEIN, G [1 ]
机构
[1] CARNEGIE MELLON UNIV,DEPT SOCIAL & DECIS SCI,PITTSBURGH,PA 15213
关键词
TIME PREFERENCE; TIME DISCOUNTING; INTERTEMPORAL CHOICE; DECISION MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY; CHOICE ANOMALIES;
D O I
10.1287/mnsc.37.7.770
中图分类号
C93 [管理学];
学科分类号
12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;
摘要
This paper considers a number of parallels between risky and intertemporal choice. We begin by demonstrating a one-to-one correspondence between the behavioral violations of the respective normative theories for the two domains (i.e., expected utility and discounted utility models). We argue that such violations (or preference reversals) are broadly consistent with three propositions about the weight that an attribute receives in both types of multiattribute choice. Specifically, it appears that: (1) if we add a constant to all values of an attribute, then that attribute becomes less important; (2) if we proportionately increase all values of an attribute, or if we change the sign of an attribute, from positive to negative, then that attribute becomes more important. The generality of these propositions, as well as the constraints they would impose on separable representations of multiattribute preferences, is discussed.
引用
收藏
页码:770 / 786
页数:17
相关论文
共 44 条
[1]   DISAPPOINTMENT IN DECISION-MAKING UNDER UNCERTAINTY [J].
BELL, DE .
OPERATIONS RESEARCH, 1985, 33 (01) :1-27
[2]   DISCOUNT RATES INFERRED FROM DECISIONS - AN EXPERIMENTAL-STUDY [J].
BENZION, U ;
RAPOPORT, A ;
YAGIL, J .
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1989, 35 (03) :270-284
[3]   DISCOUNT FUNCTIONS AND THE MEASUREMENT OF PATIENTS VALUES - WOMENS DECISIONS DURING CHILDBIRTH [J].
CHRISTENSENSZALANSKI, JJJ .
MEDICAL DECISION MAKING, 1984, 4 (01) :47-58
[4]   CERTAINTY EFFECT VERSUS PROBABILITY DISTORTION - AN EXPERIMENTAL-ANALYSIS OF DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK [J].
COHEN, M ;
JAFFRAY, JY .
JOURNAL OF EXPERIMENTAL PSYCHOLOGY-HUMAN PERCEPTION AND PERFORMANCE, 1988, 14 (04) :554-560
[5]  
Elster Jon, 1985, ECON PHILOS, V1, P231
[6]   RISK PREFERENCES FOR GAINS AND LOSSES IN MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISION-MAKING [J].
FISCHER, GW ;
KAMLET, MS ;
FIENBERG, SE ;
SCHKADE, D .
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1986, 32 (09) :1065-1086
[7]   TIME PREFERENCE [J].
FISHBURN, PC .
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC REVIEW, 1982, 23 (03) :677-694
[8]   VALUE-FUNCTIONS FOR INFINITE-PERIOD PLANNING [J].
HARVEY, CM .
MANAGEMENT SCIENCE, 1986, 32 (09) :1123-1139
[9]  
HARVEY CM, 1988, UNPUB PRESCRIPTIVE M
[10]   PROSPECT THEORIES REFLECTION HYPOTHESIS - A CRITICAL-EXAMINATION [J].
HERSHEY, JC ;
SCHOEMAKER, PJH .
ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR AND HUMAN PERFORMANCE, 1980, 25 (03) :395-418