THE USE OF ECONOMIC QUANTITATIVE MODELING TECHNIQUES IN LIVESTOCK HEALTH AND DISEASE-CONTROL DECISION-MAKING - A REVIEW

A number of 'economic' quantitative modelling techniques have been used to provide information to help decision makers choose appropriate livestock health and disease-control strategies. Mathematical programming, network analysis, decision analysis, simulation and cost-benefit analysis all have been applied to livestock disease-control decisions. Techniques under each of these headings are 'economic' to the extent that they concern the allocation of resources (i.e. to different disease-control strategies). Given the inherently dynamic and risky nature of disease and its effects, techniques, such as simulation, which can take account of these aspects are particularly useful. Mathematical programming approaches are most suited to relatively structured decision problems, whereas approaches such as decision analysis are particularly useful for poorly structured decision problems where judgements may be required. Cost-benefit analysis comprises a range of useful techniques for evaluating alternative courses of action. However, there is considerable variation in the application of these techniques which needs to be recognized by those using the results of such evaluations. There are no firm rules as to the choice of appropriate technique(s) and often they are used in combination. Whatever quantitative techniques are chosen, it is the skill and judgement of the analysts that determine the value of their application and the information provided.