SIMULATED RESPONSES OF A FOREST-INTERIOR BIRD POPULATION TO FOREST MANAGEMENT OPTIONS IN CENTRAL HARDWOOD FORESTS OF THE UNITED-STATES

I used estimates of carrying capacity, survival, fecundity, and edge effects to simulate the responses of a forest-interior bird population to selection cutting, clearcutting, and no timber harvest I also modeled population sensitivity to changes infecundity, survival, K, and edge relationships. Because model parameters are based on scant data, results should be regarded as hypotheses to be further investigated or measures of the relative impact or sensitivity (given model assumptions). Simulated population size was greater with no timber harvest than with clearcutting and greater with clearcutting than with group selection when edge effects were included in the model. Without edge effects, population levels were only slightly lower under group selection than under no timber harvest, and greater than clearcutting. Edge effects bad only a small impact on population levels under clearcutting. Clearcut size did not have much effect on population levels, but longer and shorter rotation ages resulted in higher and lower population levels, respectively. The model was very sensitive to declines in mean fecundity and survival, suggesting that factors affecting mean demographic rates could be more important than local edge effects. Some methods of timber harvest may be compatible with the conservation of forest- interior birds, but better demographic data and information on habitat suitability of selectively cut forests and young even-aged stands is needed to adequately evaluate management options.