A Kaleckian Model of Business Cycle Synchronization

A non-linear, two-country Kaleckian model of the business cycle was developed for investigating business cycle synchronization. The model includes three components: a country-specific business cycle-generating equation, a transmission mechanism and time delays in the transmission mechanism. The model constructed is a non-linear delay-differential equation system. Solutions to the model without time delays in transmission are derived using the averaging method. The solutions show that the model produces limit cycles representing business cycles. The model with time delays in transmission is then solved numerically in order to investigate the role played by the coupling strength and coupling delay in transforming otherwise independent country-specific cycles into a synchronized business cycle. The degree of synchronization of the business cycle is shown to be positively related to the coupling strength. Moreover, coupling delays above a certain threshold play a desynchronizing role.