EPIDEMIOLOGY OF CANINE LEISHMANIASIS - PREVALENCE, INCIDENCE AND BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER CALCULATED FROM A CROSS-SECTIONAL SEROLOGICAL SURVEY ON THE ISLAND OF GOZO, MALTA

被引:67
作者
DYE, C
KILLICKKENDRICK, R
VITUTIA, MM
WALTON, R
KILLICKKENDRICK, M
HARITH, AE
GUY, MW
CANAVATE, MC
HASIBEDER, G
机构
[1] UNIV LONDON IMPERIAL COLL SCI & TECHNOL, ASCOT SL5 7PY, BERKS, ENGLAND
[2] INST SALUD CARLOS 111, CNMVIS, SERV PARASITOL, E-28220 MAJADAHONDA, SPAIN
[3] PRINCE LEOPOLD INST TROP MED, B-2000 ANTWERP, BELGIUM
[4] UNIV LIVERPOOL, LIVERPOOL SCH TROP MED, LIVERPOOL L3 5QA, ENGLAND
[5] VIENNA TECH UNIV, MATH BIOL ABT, A-1040 VIENNA, AUSTRIA
[6] MRC, EXTERNAL STAFF, LONDON WC1E 6AS, ENGLAND
[7] UNIV PENN, SCH VET MED, PHILADELPHIA, PA 19104 USA
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
CANINE LEISHMANIASIS; EPIDEMIOLOGY; MALTA; BASIC REPRODUCTION NUMBER; SANDFLIES; SEROLOGY;
D O I
10.1017/S0031182000073662
中图分类号
R38 [医学寄生虫学]; Q [生物科学];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ; 100103 ;
摘要
Assessment of the resilience of canine leishmaniasis to control or, more ambitiously, the effort needed to eradicate infection, requires an estimate of the basic case reproduction number (R0). This paper applies the theoretical results of Hasibeder, Dye & Carpenter (1992) to data from a cross-sectional survey on the Maltese island of Gozo in which dogs of known age, sex and occupation (pet, guard etc) were subjected to three different serological tests for the presence of specific antibody (IFAT, DAT and ELISA). Difficulties in interpreting these test results, and hence of determining the proportion of dogs infected, present the main obstacle to estimating R0: estimates are critically dependent on the choice of threshold separating seropositives from seronegatives. The data do, however, allow a robust comparative analysis of risk which shows that the force of infection experienced by working dogs is about three times higher than that of pet dogs, a degree of non-homogeneous contact which actually has little effect on estimates of R0. We suggest a cautious point estimate of R0 congruent-to 11, and comment briefly on its significance for leishmaniasis control.
引用
收藏
页码:35 / 41
页数:7
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