SEASONAL AND OTHER SHORT-TERM INFLUENCES ON UNITED-STATES AIDS INCIDENCE

This paper models monthly AIDS diagnosis counts in terms of smooth secular trend, calendar month effects, and the number of workdays per month. A parameterization of month effects allows separation of true seasonal effects from a linear trend over the calendar year and an arbitrary June effect. There is strong evidence for seasonal patterns, other calendar month effects, and workday effects. Examination of subgroups defined by reporting delay, initial diagnosis, risk group, and region shows evidence for seasonal patterns in some diagnosis groups, for effects due to imputed diagnosis dates, and for effects due to patients' choices of when to seek diagnosis.