PREDICTING THE MOST LIKELY DIFFUSION SEQUENCE OF A NEW TECHNOLOGY THROUGH THE ECONOMY - THE CASE OF SUPERCONDUCTIVITY

被引：8

作者：

DEBRESSON, C

机构：

[1] CIRST-UQAM, Montréal, Qué. H3C 4R2

来源：

RESEARCH POLICY | 1995年 / 24卷 / 05期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0048-7333(94)00791-5

中图分类号：

C93 [管理学];

学科分类号：

12 ; 1201 ; 1202 ; 120202 ;

摘要：

Using existing data on superconductivity, the paper articulates a less optimistic but more precise set of predictions. Based on the author's modeling of inter-industrial diffusion of new technologies, the most likely sequence of adoption of superconductivity by specific industrial sectors is specified. Existing relationships between, and specific performance thresholds required by, each industrial sector constrain the diffusion of the new technology through paths of least resistance. The stochastic model gives bench marks for those monitoring the progress of the new technology.

引用

页码：685 / 705

页数：21

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