CLIMATIC WARMING AND CROP POTENTIAL IN EUROPE - PROSPECTS AND UNCERTAINTIES

被引：34

作者：

CARTER, TR

PORTER, JH

PARRY, ML

机构：

[1] The authors are with the Atmospheric Impacts Research Group, Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford

来源：

GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS | 1991年 / 1卷 / 04期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0959-3780(91)90056-Y

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

Climatic warming due to increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is likely to lead to large-scale shifts in the pattern of agricultural potential. This article reports the results of a study to investigate the broad-scale sensitivity of crop potential to climatic change in Europe. A simple agroclimatic index, effective temperature sum (ETS), has been related to the minimum requirements for the successful cultivation of three crops: grain maize, sunflower and soya bean. With the aid of a computer mapping system, ETS has been mapped across Europe on the basis of present climate and of scenarios of future climate. In this way, the effects of changes in climate can be expressed as spatial shifts in the limits of crop potential, and the uncertainities in the estimates can be interpreted in terms of the likelihood of particular regions becoming climatically suitable for crop cultivation. The estimates point to a considerable dislocation of agricultural potential occurring over a matter of only several decades.

引用

页码：291 / 312

页数：22

共 71 条

[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, World Meteorological Organization, United Nations Environment Programme, Climate Change: The IPCC Scientific Assessment, (1990)
[2] Parry, Climate Change and World Agriculture, (1990)
[3] Carter, Parry, Porter, Climatic change and future agroclimatic potential in Europe, International Journal of Climatology, 11, pp. 251-269, (1991)
[4] Parry, Carter, An assessment of the effects of climatic change on agriculture, Climatic Change, 15, pp. 95-116, (1989)
[5] Rosenzweig, Potential CO<sub>2</sub>-induced climate effects on North American wheat-producing regions, Climatic Change, 15, pp. 367-389, (1985)
[6] Uchijima, Seino, Probable effects of CO<sub>2</sub>-induced climatic change on agroclimatic resources and net primary productivity in Japan, Bulletin National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences, 4, pp. 67-88, (1988)
[7] Pittock, Nix, The effect of changing climate on Australian biomass production — a preliminary study, Climatic Change, 8, pp. 243-255, (1986)
[8] Parry, Climatic Change, Agriculture and Settlement, (1978)
[9] Alcamo, Amann, Hettelingh, Holmberg, Hordijk, Kamari, Kauppi, Kauppi, Kornai, Makela, Acidification in Europe: A simulation model for evaluating control strategies, Ambio, 16, pp. 232-245, (1987)
[10] Hansen, Russell, Rind, Stone, Lacis, Lebedeff, Ruedy, Travis, Efficient three-dimensional global models for climate studies: Models I and II, Monthly Weather Review, 111, pp. 609-662, (1983)

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 →