SURPRISES AND SECRETS - LESSONS FROM THE 1990 NICARAGUAN ELECTION

This article analyzes one of the first surveys of Nicaraguan electoral opinion prior to the 1990 election in which Daniel Ortega was defeated by Violeta Chamorro. Although this survey, like many others, predicted an Ortega victory, the analysis reveals that the impending FSLN loss was in fact evident had this survey and others been scrutinized more carefully. Moreover, the nature of both FSLN and Chamorro support departs from the traditional division of political loyalties in Nicaragua and shows surprising similarities with electoral trends in more advanced, industrial democracies. The essay suggests that in tense political situations, such as preelectoral Nicaragua, particular survey problems may arise and special tactics may be necessary, including earlier rather than later opinion polls.