GENERATION OF BIVARIATE SOLAR-RADIATION AND TEMPERATURE TIME-SERIES

A bivariate periodic time series model for daily sequences of dry bulb air temperature and solar radiation is developed. An autoregressive model is first used to produce a monthly time series. A temporal disaggregation process is then employed to produce the daily series from the monthly series. When applied to an historical time series, the models preserve the first- and second-order moment properties as well as the correlation properties of the monthly and daily historical data. In addition, the skewness coefficient of the observed sequence is reasonably well preserved at both temporal levels. The model can provide multilevel synthetic meterological data that is important in simulating solar energy systems that consider both short- and long-term performance.