Characterizing and Modeling Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems for Use in Wind Integration Planning Studies

被引:54
作者
Hodge, Bri-Mathias [1 ]
Ela, Erik [1 ]
Milligan, Michael [1 ]
机构
[1] Natl Renewable Energy Lab, 15013 Denver West Pkwy, Golden, CO 80401 USA
关键词
D O I
10.1260/0309-524X.36.5.509
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 [动力工程及工程热物理]; 0820 [石油与天然气工程];
摘要
An important consideration in wind power integration studies is the role that wind power forecasting will play in simulated high-penetration system operations. As no wind power forecast is perfect, an understanding of the forecast error distributions that are observed in current system operations is important for modeling the forecast errors that can be expected in future scenarios. In this work, we statistically characterize and model the wind power forecast errors from three different operational forecasting systems at multiple timescales. Comparisons are made with two methods that are commonly used in wind integration studies to represent wind power forecasting: the persistence model, and an assumed normal distribution of forecasting errors. A number of model distributions are fit to the operational system forecast errors and the accuracy of the model fits to extreme events is examined in detail.
引用
收藏
页码:509 / 524
页数:16
相关论文
共 33 条
[1]
2012 RCT R Foundation for Statistical Computing Vienna Austria, 2010, R LANG ENV STAT COMP
[2]
Statistical analysis of wind power forecast error [J].
Bludszuweit, Hans ;
Antonio Dominguez-Navarro, Jose ;
Llombart, Andres .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2008, 23 (03) :983-991
[3]
Bouffard F., 2008, 2008 IEEE POW EN SOC
[4]
CAISO, 2010, INT REN RES OP REQ G
[5]
On the optimization of the daily operation of a wind-hydro power plant [J].
Castronuovo, ED ;
Lopes, JAP .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2004, 19 (03) :1599-1606
[6]
Dietrich K., 2009, 4 C EN EC TECHN DRES
[7]
A new approach to quantify reserve demand in systems with significant installed wind capacity [J].
Doherty, R ;
O'Malley, M .
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, 2005, 20 (02) :587-595
[8]
Ela E, 2009, IEEE POW ENER SOC GE, P659
[9]
EnerNex, 2010, E WIND INT TRANSM ST
[10]
EnerNex, 2006, WIND INT STUD PUBL S