THE DRAFT LOTTERY AND VOLUNTARY ENLISTMENT IN THE VIETNAM ERA

被引:31
作者
ANGRIST, JD
机构
关键词
ARMED FORCES; MILITARY MANPOWER; MINIMUM CHI-SQUARED ESTIMATES;
D O I
10.2307/2290386
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
A combination of voluntary enlistment, armed forces eligibility criteria, and the failure of draftees to avoid conscription jointly determined the racial composition of the Vietnam era armed forces. Administrative data show that men with draft lottery numbers that put them at high risk of conscription are overrepresented among men who voluntarily enlisted in the military but that the effect of the lottery on enlistment is stronger for Whites than for non-Whites. Minimum chi-squared estimates of enlistment models for the 1971 draft lottery suggest that non-Whites were more likely than Whites to prefer enlistment to a civilian career. This finding appears to explain racial differences in the effect of the lottery on enlistment. Contrary to the findings of a recent congressional study, the Vietnam era estimates presented here suggest that conscription of a relatively small number of Whites and non-Whites in a manner proportional to their prevalence in the population might substantially reduce non-White representation in the armed forces.
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页码:584 / 595
页数:12
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