PREOVULATORY PROGESTERONE GROWTH-RATE IN PATIENTS TREATED WITH GONADOTROPIN-RELEASING-HORMONE AGONIST AND OUTCOME OF IN-VITRO FERTILIZATION

The present study was undertaken to assess whether the increase in serum progesterone concentration following the administration of human chorionic gonadotrophin (HCG) may have predictive value on the in-vitro fertilization (IVF) success rate. Progesterone concentration on the day of HCG administration and the increase in progesterone concentration on the following day were evaluated in 140 consecutive patients undergoing IVF with embryo transfer. Stimulation protocol in all study patients entailed intranasal administration of short-acting gonadotrophin-releasing hormone agonist (GnRHa) buserelin and human menopausal gonadotrophin. A pregnancy rate of 37.2% was achieved when at least three embryos were transferred. The only significant difference between conception and non-conception cycles was found in serum progesterone concentrations after HCG administration (P < 0.01), whereas the mean progesterone concentration on the day of HCG did not differ. No difference in other hormonal or cycle parameters was observed. The increase in progesterone concentration was significantly greater in the group of patients who achieved pregnancy than in the group who did not (2.2 +/- 0.2 versus 1.6 +/- 0.1 ng/ml, respectively; P < 0.01). A critical breakpoint in serum progesterone was arbitrarily determined at 1 ng/ml. An increase in progesterone concentration greater-than-or-equal-to 1 ng/ml when three or more embryos were transferred was associated with a positive predictive value for pregnancy of 40.4% (sensitivity of 94.7%), whereas a negative predictive value of 86.7% was obtained when this value was < 1 ng/ml. These findings indicate that an adequate rise in serum progesterone following HCG administration provides useful information about the possible outcome of the treated cycle.