KIRTLANDS WARBLER HABITATS - A POSSIBLE EARLY INDICATOR OF CLIMATIC WARMING

If the projections of global climate models are correct, jack pine Pinus banksiana forests in central Michigan, managed as the primary nesting habitat for the endangered species Kirtland's warbler Dendroica kirtlandii, will soon be growing at a significantly slower rate than they have in the recent past. As a result, these forests may become unsuitable as habitat for the warbler within 30-60 years. This projection is based on results from a global climate model applied to a forest growth model. The robustness of these predictions is discussed. Measurement of tree growth in these forests could provide some of the earliest evidence of biological effects of climatic warming due to an increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.