DEMOGRAPHIC-TRANSITION PATTERNS AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE AGE STRUCTURE

The population multiplier, a synthetic index that characterizes the pattern of demographic transition, is the number by which a population is multiplied between the pretransitional phase and the posttransitional phase. To assess the impact of patterns of demographic transition on the variation in the size of broad age groups, this article decomposes the population multiplier by age, with particular attention to young and elderly age groups. The possible range in variation in the multiplier is demonstrated, and age-specific transitional multipliers are derived for historical populations and by extrapolation for current pretransition populations. The latter reveal potential disproportionate expansions in some elderly populations with attendant social costs. -Author