SYSTEMS-MODEL OF STREAM FLOW AND WATER-QUALITY IN THE BEDFORD-OUSE RIVER .1. STREAM FLOW MODELING

This paper. the first of a two part description of the modelling activities associated with the Bedford-Ouse River Study, concentrates on streamflow characterisation. The streamflow models are of a stochastic-dynamic type in which a simple lumped parameter differential equation model for mainstream flow is enhanced by stochastic time-series descriptions of rainfall-runoff behaviour. The models have been developed using a new systematic approach to the modelling of badly defined dynamic systems which is centred around the exploitation of recursive methods of parameter estimation and time-series analysis. At the same time. the models have quite strong links with more conventional models used previously in hydrological systems analysis and the implications of the modelling results can easily be interpreted in conventional hydrologic terms. An important aspect of the modelling exercises described in the paper is that they are objective orientated and, in the Bedford-Ouse Study. the models are developed specifically with operational control and management applications in mind. © 1979.