THE COST OF NOT HOLDING BACK THE SEA - TOWARD A NATIONAL SAMPLE OF ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY

被引：25

作者：

YOHE, G

机构：

[1] Wesleyan University, Middletown, CT

[2] Research Fellow, Institute for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University, New Haven, CT

来源：

COASTAL MANAGEMENT | 1990年 / 18卷 / 04期

关键词：

ECONOMICS; HAZARDS; SEA-LEVEL RISE;

D O I：

10.1080/08920759009362123

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

National and regional estimates of U.S. economic vulnerability to greenhouse-induced sea-level rise are produced from a sample of 30 discrete regions scattered evenly along the coastline. Scenarios that envision 50 cm, 100 cm, and 200 cm of greenhouse-induced sea-level rise are considered. They can be expected to place $39.2, $65.6, and $133.3 billion, respectively, (1989 dollars) of existing development in jeopardy through 2050, and $133.3, $308.7, and $909.4 billion through 2100. Sampling error and consideration of the uncertainty with which we currently view future greenhouse-induced sea-level rise places the 25th and 75th percentile values of expected cumulative vulnerability at $38.5 and $76.7 billion through 2050 and $132.6 and $362.4 billion through 2100. Not surprisingly, the southeast displays the largest potential vulnerability, with the northeast ranking second above both the Gulf coast and the west coast.

引用

页码：403 / 431

页数：29

共 29 条

[1]

Barth M., Titus J., Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise, (1984)

[2]

Bruun P., Sea level rise as a cause of shore erosion, Journal of the Waterways and Harbor Division, 1, pp. 116-130, (1962)

[3]

Cummings R., Brookshire D., Schulze W., Valuing Environmental Goods, (1986)

[4]

Robin D.Q., Projecting the rise in sea level caused by warming of the atmosphere, The Greenhouse Effect, Climatic Change, and Ecosystems, SCOPE, 29, pp. 147-182, (1987)

[5]

Gibb M., Economic analysis of sea level rise, Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise, pp. 107-138, (1984)

[6]

Gramlich E., Cost-Benefit Analysis, (1982)

[7]

Hekstra G., Sea level rise: Regional consequences and responses, Greenhouse Warming: Abatement and Adaptation, pp. 53-68, (1989)

[8]

Hoffman J.S., Keys D., Titus J.G., Projecting Future Sea Level Rise, (1983)

[9]

Hoffman J.S., Wells J., Titus J.G., Future global warming and sealevel rise, Proceedings, Iceland Coastal and River Symposium, pp. 237-251, (1986)

[10]

Lashoff D., Tirpak D., Policy Options for Stabilizing Global Climate, (1989)

← 1 2 3 →