数值天气预报模式对雅砻江下游强降水预报能力检验研究（英文）附视频

被引：5

作者：

Mingxiang YANG ^{[1
,2
]}

Yunzhong JIANG ^{[2
]}

Xing LU ^{[3
]}

Hongli ZHAO ^{[2
]}

Yuntao YE ^{[2
]}

Yu TIAN ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Hydraulic Engineering, Tsinghua University

[2] State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

[3] China Eastern Route Corporation of South-to-North Water Diversion

来源：

Journal of Zhejiang University-Science A(Applied Physics & Engineering) | 2015年 / 01期

关键词：

WRF模式; 雅砻江流域; 降水模拟; 积云对流参数化方案; 云微物理参数化方案;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P456.7 [数值预报方法];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

目的:检验数值天气预报模式(WRF)在雅砻江下游对强降水的预报能力,并找出表现最优的参数化方案组合。创新点:首次针对雅砻江流域检验WRF模式对强降水的预报能力,并加入了计算时间作为评价的重要参考。方法:通过三场强降水事件,利用七种常用的云微物理参数化方案(Kessler,Lin et al.(Lin),SingleMoment 3-class(WSM3),Single-Moment 5-class(WSM5),Ferrier,Single-Moment 6-class(WSM6),和New Thompson et al.(NTH))和3种积云对流参数化方案(Kain-Fritsch(KF),Betts-Miller-Janjic(BMJ)和Grell-Devenyi(GD))的组合,对WRF模式在雅砻江下游的降水预报能力进行检验。为了评价WRF模式的预报能力,引入探测率(POD),空报率(FAR),BIAS和公平预报评分(ETS),对比不同方案组合的降水空间分布和站点预报的有效性。同时,均方根误差(RMSE)等指标被用来评价面雨量预报的精确性。除常规评价外,还将计算时间作为方案评价的重要参考,在满足精度需求的前提下优先选择计算效率高的方案组合。结论:1.WRF模式能够适用于雅砻江下游强降水预报;2.WSM3以及GD参数化方案组合的表现最为有效和稳定。

引用

页码：18 / 37

页数：20

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