基于GLUE和标准Bayesian方法对TOPMODEL模型的参数不确定性分析

被引：3

作者：

赵盼盼 ^{[1
]}

吕海深 ^{[2
]}

朱永华 ^{[2
]}

欧阳芬 ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] 河海大学理学院

[2] 河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室

来源：

南水北调与水利科技 | 2014年 / 12卷 / 06期

关键词：

GLUE; Bayesian方法; TOPMDEL模型; 不确定性; 敏感参数; 拟合; 置信区间;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P334.92 [];

学科分类号：

摘要：

目前,水文模型不确定性的量化问题在水文研究中受到很大关注,在一些文章中提到了许多不确定性量化的方法,其中,GLUE方法和标准Bayesian方法是两种最常用的方法。主要讨论这两种方法在研究TOPMODEL模型时计算有效性和不同之处.通过用GLUE和标准Bayesian方法估计TOPMODEL模型参数的不确定性和模拟的不确定性,对这两种方法的结果进行评价,并讨论产生不同的原因,研究的主要结果为:(1)由Bayesian方法得到的参数后验分布比GLUE方法得到的离散型小。(2)给定GLUE中阈值(=0.8)的情况下,由Bayesian方法得到模拟流量的不确定性置信区间与GLUE方法得到的很接近。

引用

页码：44 / 48

页数：5

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