Application of a fuzzy based decision making methodology to construction project risk assessment

The increasing complexity and dynamics of construction projects have plagued the construction industry with substantial hazards and losses. Project risk management, therefore, has been recognised critical for the construction industry to improve their performance and secure the success of projects. Risk magnitude may be assessed by considering two parameters: risk likelihood and risk severity. However, there are many possible risk factors in construction, which lead to a project failure and these risk factors should be incorporated into the evaluation process. Factor index is therefore introduced to structure and evaluate these factors and integrate them into the decision making process of risk assessment. This article presents a risk assessment methodology to cope with risks in complicated construction situations. The application of fuzzy reasoning techniques provides an effective tool to handle the uncertainties and subjectivities arising in the construction process. A modified analytical hierarchy process is used to structure and prioritize diverse risk factors. Finally, an illustrative example on risk analysis of steel erection of the superstructure in a shopping centre is used to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results indicate that by using the proposed methodology the risks associated with steel erection can be assessed effectively and efficiently. © 2007 Elsevier Ltd and IPMA.