Evaluating the performance of the industrial source complex - (short term) model

This study illustrates the application of a commonly used air quality simulation model. It evaluates the performance of the EPA Industrial Source Complex Short Term (ISCST) model near the Shuaiba Industrial Area (SIA), Kuwait, for the year 1982. The evaluation compared the 50 highest calculated and observed 24-hour average SO2 concentrations. The model under-predicted all cases when ranked observations were compared with calculations for the same time and location and with ranked calculations unpaired in time and space. A limited meteorological analysis compared the distributions of mixing height, stabilities and wind speeds associated with the 50 highest observed and the 50 highest calculated averages to distributions for the entire year. It is concluded that the meteorological input data from the Kuwait International Airport, 30 km northwest of SIA may not be representative of conditions at SIA, contributing to poor model performance. On-site meteorological data are necessary to model adequately pollution patterns near SIA.