基于降雨温度偏差纠正的金华江流域未来地表径流预估

被引：4

作者：

马冲 ^{[1
]}

高希超 ^{[1
]}

许月萍 ^{[1
]}

康丽莉 ^{[2
]}

张永强 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 浙江大学建筑工程学院水利工程学系

[2] 浙江省气象科学研究所

来源：

水力发电学报 | 2014年 / 33卷 / 05期

关键词：

工程水文学; 气候变化; 区域气候模式; 偏差纠正; 分布式土壤植被水文模型; 金华江流域;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TV121 [径流];

学科分类号：

摘要：

利用区域气候模式PRECIS与分布式水文模型DHSVM进行耦合,并用金华江流域实测水文数据对水文模型参数进行了率定,将PRECIS模拟的A1B情景下基准期(1961-1990年)及未来期(2011-2040年)的气象数据作为DHSVM模型的输入,模拟出相应时期金华江流域的径流,然后对这两个时期的径流量进行比较、评估。由于PRECIS模拟的降雨和温度等较实测数据有较大误差,在利用PRECIS数据驱动水文模型前先对降雨和温度数据进行了偏差纠正。结果表明,偏差纠正可以较好的消除PRECIS模拟的降雨和温度等数据的误差;A1B情景下未来期(2011-2040年)金华江流域的地表径流量、极端径流值等较基准期(1961-1990年)略有减少,地表径流量减少约3.86%,变化不显著。

引用

页码：20 / 27

页数：8

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