雷达反演水汽在华南前汛期短时临近降水预报应用试验

被引：4

作者：

张诚忠 ^{[1
]}

陈子通 ^{[1
]}

万齐林 ^{[1
]}

林振敏 ^{[2
]}

黄燕燕 ^{[1
]}

戴光丰 ^{[1
]}

钟水新 ^{[1
]}

丁伟钰 ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室

[2] 广西壮族自治区气象台

来源：

热带气象学报 | 2014年 / 30卷 / 05期

关键词：

雷达反演水汽; 前汛期暴雨; 短时临近预报;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

P457.6 [降水预报];

学科分类号：

摘要：

为了改善数值预报模式短时临近降水预报能力,采用雷达水汽反演同化方案来提高模式初始水汽场质量。以华南精细预报模式对2013年5月进行了冷启动、热启动和热启动加雷达水汽同化等3个对比试验,并进一步详细分析2013年5月8—9日广东西南部到珠三角地区强降雨过程,探讨雷达反演水汽对短时临近降水预报的影响作用。分析结果显示3个试验结果反映精细模式冷启动不利于1～6 h的降水预报,模式热启动能较好预报前6 h的降水,但对随后预报效果不佳。在热启动的基础上,考虑同化雷达反演的水汽后,不仅较好模拟前6 h的降水,也可以预报出6～12 h的降雨带变化趋势。

引用

页码：801 / 810

页数：10

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